Tories retake poll lead in spite of unpopular cuts
A majority of voters are convinced that the consequences of spending cuts will be unfair, according to a Guardian/ICM poll.
But the poll suggests there is no full-scale revolt against the coalition measures after last week's comprehensive spending review, with Labour slipping behind the Conservatives for the first time in the Guardian polling series since July.
The Conservatives have turned a two-point deficit in the Guardian's last ICM poll into a three-point lead, 39% to 36%. The government also retains a strong lead on economic competence.
That will come as a relief to ministers who feared the immediate political impact of the massive cuts in spending could be far worse.
Nor is there any sign yet of a dramatic Labour advance under Ed Miliband's leadership. In a theoretical immediate general election, both Labour and the Conservatives would gain votes compared with last May's general election and the Liberal Democrats would lose out.
Conservative support is one point down on the most recent ICM poll but four points higher than the last Guardian/ICM poll in September, just after Miliband's election as Labour leader.
Labour is unchanged on the most recent ICM poll but down one on last month's Guardian results. The Liberal Democrats, on 16%, are unchanged on the most recent ICM figure but two down on the last Guardian poll. That is equal to their weakest position in ICM polls since the general election.
Both Labour and the Conservatives have retained the backing of 91% of people who voted for them in May, but the Lib Dems have retained only 55% of their election supporters. Of the rest, about 27% say they now back Labour and 13% the Conservatives.
Compared to the August Guardian/ICM poll – the last unaffected by the immediate impact of the party conference season – the Conservatives are up two points, Labour down one point and the Lib Dems down two. But there is clear evidence that the public mood is shifting against cuts.
More people now oppose coalition plans for cuts than support them. Some 48% of all voters say the cuts go too far, 36% think the balance is right and 8% want them to go further.
Public backing for cuts has fallen steadily since July, when a total of 55% thought the balance was either right or cuts should go further. In September, the figure was 47%. Opposition to the scale of cuts has risen from 38% in July to 43% in September and 48% now.
Understandably, poorer voters are most alarmed. While 50% of AB voters agree with the scale of cuts or want even more, 54% of DEs oppose them. Public sector workers are also much more hostile than private ones: 58% of public workers think the cuts go too far against only 43% of private ones.
After last week's dispute between the Treasury and the independent Institute of Fiscal Studies about the impact of cuts, most voters agree that the poor will be hit disproportionately. While 52% think the cuts will be unfair, only 44% agree with the Treasury that it has done a good job of sharing out the pain.
• ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 22-24 October 2010. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules
- Opinion polls
- Liberal-Conservative coalition
- Spending review 2010
- Tax and spending
- Public finance
- Public sector cuts
- Public services policy
- Conservatives
- Labour
- Liberal Democrats
Julian Glover
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